The IEA's World Energy Outlook 2010 Released | b l o g o d r i l

14 November 2010

The IEA's World Energy Outlook 2010 Released

The 2010 edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO) was released on 9 November and it provides updated projections of energy demand, production, trade and investment, fuel by fuel and region by region to 2035. It includes, for the first time, a new scenario that anticipates future actions by governments to meet the commitments they have made to tackle climate change and growing energy insecurity.

“The Copenhagen Accord and the agreement among G20 countries to phase out subsidies are important steps forward. But, these moves still fall a very long way short of what is required to set us on the path to a truly sustainable energy system”, said Nobuo Tanaka, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency in London at the launch of the latest edition of the IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook (WEO).


New Policies Scenario

The IEA's Press release (9/11) described the New Policies Scenario: world primary energy demand increases by 36% between 2008 and 2035, or 1.2% per year on average. The assumed policies make a tangible difference to energy trends: demand grew by 2% per year over the previous 27-year period. Non-OECD countries account for 93% of the projected increase in world primary energy demand. China – which IEA preliminary data suggests overtook the United States in 2009 to become the world’s largest energy user despite its low per capita energy use – contributes 36% to the projected growth in global energy use.

The oil price is set to rise, reflecting the growing insensitivity of both demand and supply to price. In the New Policies Scenario, the average IEA crude oil price rises from just over $60 in 2009 to $113 per barrel (in year-2009 dollars) in 2035. Oil demand continues to grow steadily, reaching about 99 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2035 — 15 mb/d higher than in 2009.

The Government intervention in support of renewables (electricity from renewables and biofuels) increases from $57 billion in 2009 to $205 billion (in 2009 dollars) by 2035. The share of modern renewable energy sources, including sustainable hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, modern biomass and marine energy, in global primary energy use triples between 2008 and 2035 and their combined share in total primary energy demand increases from 7% to 14%.

How to make modern energy access universal?

It is an alarming fact that today - in the 21st century - there are still billions of people without access to electricity or clean cooking facilities. The ambitious goals that have been set to eradicate extreme poverty can never be fully realised without acknowledging and confronting this fact. The international community has long been aware of the close relationship between development and access to modern energy services. But there is no Millennium Development Goal specifically related to energy. To help support action and policy making in this area, the International Energy Agency, the United Nations Development Programme and the United Nations Industrial Development Organisation have pooled their resources and expertise to produce this report, an early excerpt from the forthcoming IEA World Energy Outlook 2010.


You can download the WEO-2010 special early excerpt: Energy Poverty: How to make modern energy access universal

Source: World Energy Outlook, http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org

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